# Last edited on 2014-03-08 18:52:47 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Extinct Creature Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Mar/09[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-03-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3596 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 588 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-08-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta rectangle.  The blue rectangle is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray rectangles are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

Today was a Glyptodon, barely (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 0.00437 < 0.005). This point is roughly aligned with the three previous Glyptodon points (and even with yesterday's Albertosaurus), so it seems reasonable to use the least squares straight line defined by those four Glyptodons; namely, p(d) = A+B*(d-4), where d is the day of the month, A = 4056.20 and B = -91.97. 

(This Glyptodon point may also be the start of a new trend, after yesterday's Albertosarus; but this hypothesis would not allow a prediction for tomorrow.)

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-08-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and rectangles are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-03-08, 01:00 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3891 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3668 CNY
Error: 223 CNY (~36 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 636 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 614 USD
Error: 22 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Apologies for the delay in implementing the pterodactyls and icthyosaurs, but they are stuck because of a bug in the bitcoin protocol.