# Last edited on 2014-03-07 22:10:04 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Cretaceous Dinosaur and Pleistocene Mammal Slumber Method prediction for Saturday Mar/08[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-03-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3891 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 636 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-07-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta rectangle.  The blue rectangle is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray rectangles are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

Today was an Albertosaurus, barely (V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] = 5.88) so, according to the Method, it does not count for trendification.  The Huobi prediction was therefore obtained from the same trend used yesterday, determined by the last three Glyptodons; namely, p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-04), where d is the day of the month, A = 3833.26, B = 156.74, and Q = 0.464.

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-07-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and rectangles are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Since today was an Albertosaurus, the prediction for today was officially voided.  But, for the curious:

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-03-06, 23:27 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3899 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3802 CNY
Error: 97 CNY (~16 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 637 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Error: 14 USD 

[b]NOTE[/b]: Thanks for the user who proposed a pterosaur for extreme bullish predictions.  Now looking for an ichtyosaur to match.