# Last edited on 2014-03-06 20:25:20 by stolfilocal

[b]Chinese Slumber Dinosaur prediction for Friday Mar/07[/b]

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Friday 2014-03-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3899 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 637 USD.

[b]Huobi[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-06-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta rectangle.  The blue rectangle is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray rectangles are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V[sub]h[/sub] for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted [i]a posteriori[/i] to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

The Huobi prediction results from fitting a shifted decaying exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-04), where d is the day of the month, to the last three Glyptodon Points --- namely 4040, 3956, and 3917 CNY on Mar/04--06.  The fitted coefficients are A = 3833.26, B = 156.74, and Q is 0.464.

[b]Bitstamp[/b]
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-06-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]
The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, lines, and rectangles are [b]Huobi[/b]'s Slumber Points, dinosaurs, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[b]Checking the previous prediction[/b]

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-05, 22:56 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3872 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3917 CNY
Error: 45 CNY (~7 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 633 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 657 USD
Error: 24 USD

[b]NOTE[/b]: [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zlPe9g1Fvw]D major[/url]