# Last edited on 2014-03-03 19:54:16 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/03[/b]

It seems that the Baron pulled too hard on his bootstraps today ;):

Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-03-03, 02:35 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3400 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3825 CNY
Error: 425 CNY (~69 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 556 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 671 USD
Error: 115 USD

It must be said however that the trade volume V[sub]h[/sub] in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59 UTC) was 12.6 kBTC, whereas the total volume V[sub]d[/sub] for the day is unlikely to exceed 400 kBTC. Therefore, the prediction is not supposed to apply anyway becuse this was a False Slumber Point.

The [b]Huobi[/b] prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the [b]Bitstamp[/b] prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The ratio of Huobi's price to Bitstamp's price was about 5.7, much lower than the usual R = 6.12.

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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/04[/b]

Since today (Mon Feb/03) was a False Slumber Point, to play by the rules I cannot use it for the preditction.  So I will use the same straight trend line used yesterday, determined by the last four True points (Feb/27--28, Mar/01--02), namely p(d) = 3521.20 - 30.30*(d - 27), where {d} is the day number since Feb/01 (which is 32 for Mar/04). Thus

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-03-04, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3370 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 551 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-03-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[b]NOTE[/b]: Extrapolating this trend, I predict that on February 01, 2015 anyone found in possession of bitcoins will be fined at the rate of 1097 USD per BTC owned.