# Last edited on 2014-03-02 23:34:12 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/02[/b]

(It is called Chinese Slumber Method because it can put half of China's propulation to sleep.)

The last prediction was not bad but a bit too bullish, again.

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-03-01, 23:37 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3515 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3427 CNY
Error: 88 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 572 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 561 USD
Error: 11 USD

The [b]Huobi[/b] prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the [b]Bitstamp[/b] prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday Mar/03[/b]

Trade volume V[sub]d[/sub] for today Mar/02 was ~41 kBTC, and volume V[sub]h[/sub] in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 52 BTC; so, by the new rule V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Mar/02 19:00--19:59) was 3427 CNY.  There is now a clear decreasing trend among the last four True points (Feb/27--28, Mar/01--02).  Therefore, it seems better to abandon the constant trend that I had been assuming for the last segment, starting Feb/20, and assume a new linear trend starting at Feb/27.  The least-squares line of those four points is p(d) = 3521.20 - 30.30*(d - 27), where {d} is the day number since Feb/01. (This line also happens to fit the Feb/26 point, even though it is nominally a False one). Thus

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3400 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 556 USD.

In retrospect, is not worth fitting any trend to the entire Empty Gox Chaos period that followed the Second Karpeles Catastrophe (namely, the six days Feb/20--25).

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-02-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.11. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

[b]NOTE[/b]: I stand by my predictions, but I am not responsible for any errors that the market may make.