# Last edited on 2014-03-01 20:38:45 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/01[/b]

(Since by now I must be in most people's "ignore" lists, advance warnings seem unnecessary.)

This is no fun... ;)

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-28, 22:19 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3522 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3479 CNY
Error: 43 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 575 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 572 USD
Error: 3 USD

The [b]Huobi[/b] prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the [b]Bitstamp[/b] prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Mar/02[/b]

Trade volume V[sub]d[/sub] for today Mar/01 is already ~102 kBTC, and volume V[sub]h[/sub] in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 100 BTC; so, by the new rule V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Feb/28 19:00--19:59) was 3464 CNY.  The new data point leads to a slight revision of the last segment of the new trendline.  The average of the True Slumber Points since the Second Karpeles Catastrophe of Feb/20 (namely, Feb/21, 23--25, 27--28, and Mar/01) is now 3515 CNY instead of 3522. Thus,

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3515 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 572 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-03-01-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.08. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

[b]NOTE[/b]: The prediction is void and null if Mark Karpeles issues another press release, or somebody sneezes.