# Last edited on 2014-02-28 19:29:56 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/28[/b]

(You weren't expecting it?  HA!  NOBODY expects the Chinese Slumber Inquisition!)

The chicken got tired it seems: :)

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-28, 01:37 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-02-28, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Huobi's predicted price: 3533 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3464 CNY
Error: 69 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 577 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 574 USD
Error: 3 USD

Trade volume V[sub]d[/sub] for today Feb/28 is already ~118 kBTC, and volume V[sub]h[/sub] in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 546 BTC; so, by the new rule V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] < 0.005, it is a True Slumber Point, barely.

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp has been close to the usual R = 6.12. Actually, for the last three days it was a bit lower, closer to 6.0.  That's strange since the official exchange rate [i]increased[/i] three days ago from 6.09 to 6.14.

The [b]Huobi[/b] prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the [b]Bitstamp[/b] prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday Mar/01[/b]

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Feb/28 19:00--19:59) was 3464 CNY.  The new data point leads to a slight revision of the last segment of the new trendline.  The average of the True Slumber Points since the Second Karpeles Catastrophe of Feb/20 (namely, Feb/21, 23--25, and 28) is now 3522 CNY instead of 3533. Thus,

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Saturday 2014-03-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3522 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 575 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle at right in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-28-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

[b]NOTE[/b]: An advantage of a flat prediction is that is irritates the bulls and the bears, equally.