# Last edited on 2014-02-27 00:49:11 by stolfilocal [b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/26[/b] Prediction posted on: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 03:47 UTC Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC Well, I am tired of being the only bull in this thread ;) Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3543 CNY Error: 261 CNY Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 589 USD Error: 33 USD The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp returned to near the normal value R = 6.12 (actually a bit lower, closer to 6.00). It seems that arbitrage trading has been restored. The [b]Huobi[/b] prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction. [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] The following chart shows the [b]Bitstamp[/b] prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R. [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday Feb/27[/b] This was the seventh consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the seven days Feb/20--26 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17. With these exceptionally high volumes, the volume V[sub]h[/sub] in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC has been above 500 BTC almost every night. By the criterion I have been using, those points should all be considered False Slumber Points and hence ignored; which would leave me with no data and hence no prediction. Therefore I am experimenting with a different criterion, namely redefining a Slumber Point to be True if S = V[sub]h[/sub]/V[sub]d[/sub] < 0.005, where V[sub]d[/sub] is the total volume of the period 00:00--23:59 UTC of the same UTC date (08:00 am to 07:59 am local time). This change only affects the classification of a few Slumber Points. In particular, Feb/24 and Feb/25, which I had classified as False before, now are classified as True. For today Feb/26, Huobi's volume V[sub]h[/sub] was 1305 BTC, and the daily volume V[sub]d[/sub] was 250.64 kBTC, giving S = 5.21 --- hence a False Slumber Point. Now there is a clear but strongly "bearish" trend defined by the last three True points, Feb/23--25, skipping Feb/26. The equation is p = 9881.67 - 263*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February It seems too pessimistic, but rules are rules and traight lines are straight lines, so: [b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Thursday 2014-02-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after) [b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 2781 CNY. [b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 454 USD. For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12. For those who prefer a bullish prediction, I can also ignore the Feb/24 and Feb/25 points, and instead extrapolate the old trendline (which began on Feb/10, and appears to be a shifted slowly decaying exponential): [b]Huobi's alternate predicted price:[/b] 3802 CNY. [b]Bitstamp's alternate predicted price:[/b] 621 USD. In the following chart, the bearish trendline and prediction are in orange and strong blue, whereas the bullish one is in olive-gray and light blue. [url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-26-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url] [b]NOTE[/b]: Don't get excited yet. The value "20,000" next to the blue rectangle belongs to the scale of the volume plot, not of the price plot.