# Last edited on 2014-02-26 00:46:43 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/25[/b]

Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-02-24, 21:36 UTC 
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

Well, again, I was obviously way more optimistic than the market ;) 

Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3284 CNY
Error: 523 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 515 USD
Error: 107 USD

One interesting observation is that, like yesterday, Huobi's price followed Bitstamp only partially, refusing to go all the way down.  The price ratio deviated from the usual 6.12 CNY/USD, although not as much as yesterday.  It seems that arbitrage trading was not totally effective at those times.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Feb/26[/b]

Today Feb/25, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 853 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.

This was the sixth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the six days Feb/20--25 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will stick to the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21.  That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3804 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 622 USD.

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-25-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[b]NOTE[/b]: If you find these Chinese Slumber Method posts boring, I could change the name to Chinese Choo Choo Train to the Moon Slumber Method.