# Last edited on 2014-02-25 01:18:51 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/24[/b]
or
[b]Have some good laughs watching Jorge chase the Chinese Chicken[/b]

Prediction posted on: Sunday 2014-02-22, 22:24 UTC 
Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-02-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

The prediction for today (Monday Feb/24) again failed.  The actual price fell halfway between the "bullish" trend line defined by the Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23; and the "bearish" trendline, parallel to it, defined by the Feb/22 Slumber Point. 

Huobi's predicted price: 3809 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3615 CNY
Error: 194 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 545 USD
Error: 77 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.  Note that this computation was quite off the actual Bitstamp price for Feb/24, due to a 10 kBTC sale that was in progress at the time.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Feb/25[/b]

Today Feb/24, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was only 197 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a True Slumber Point.  However, trading was officially interrupted for maintenance at 18:00 UTC (2:00 am China time) and was expected to resume at 23:00 UTC (07:00 China time), but there were a few small transactions in that interval.  So it may be more prudent to consider it a False Slumber Point.

This was the fifth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the Slumber Points of Feb/20, Feb/21, Feb/22 and today Feb/24 were all False.  That is, it is as if the five days Feb/20--24 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will rather arbitrarily use the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21.  That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3807 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 622 USD.

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-24-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[b]NOTE[/b]: This is not trade advice.  If you are looking for that, I advise you to trust Piet Hein:

    Shun advice
    at any price -
    that's what I call
    good advice.