# Last edited on 2014-02-23 19:07:15 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/23[/b]

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 22:05 UTC 
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

The prediction for today (Sunday Feb/23) was again way off the mark.  The rally that started on Feb/22 (presumably triggered by the (fale) rumor that MtGOX had started testing their new software) continued through Feb/23.

However, the actual price at the predicted time was close to the trendline of the Slumber Points between Feb/10 and Feb/19 inclusive.  It is as if the three previous Slumber Points (Feb/20--22) were all False, including Feb/21, in spite of its low volume in the interval 19:00 -- 19:59.  That is, it is as if the four days Feb/20--23 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

Lesson learned never try to draw a trend line with only one data point.

Anyway, here are the numbers:

Huobi's predicted price: 3368 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3810 CNY
Error: 452 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 550 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Error: 73 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday Feb/24[/b]

Today Feb/23, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China Standard Time) was only 364 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a True Slumber Point.  

That creates a trilemma for the next Huobi price prediction:

  (A) We consider the Slumber Points of Feb/21 and Feb/23 as the first two True points of a new (strongly ascending) trend line; or,
  
  (B) We disregard the Slumber Point of Feb/21, and, since Feb/23 was not too far from the old (moderately descending) trend line of Feb/10--19, we use that old trendline for the prediction; or
  
  (C) We disregard the Slumber Point of Feb/21, and consider Feb/18, Feb/19, and Feb/23 to be the first three True points of a new (almost constant) trend line, which is a continuation of the old one but with a smaller slope.
  
The last alternative seems more reasonable.  That new trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Monday 2014-02-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3809 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 622 USD.

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-23-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[b]NOTE[/b]: The plane has an infinite number of straight lines.