# Last edited on 2014-02-22 18:50:35 by stolfilocal

[b]Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/22[/b]

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 01:58 UTC 
Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-02-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC 

The prediction for today (Saturday Feb/22) was again way off the mark.  However, in the measurement interval (03:00 -- 03:59 China time) there was still significant activity (1742 BTC traded).  Therefore, by the rules of the game, that is a False Slumber Point, and the prediction should be considered void. 

Indeed, that interval came a couple of hours after a small rally, perhaps triggered by rumors that MtGOX was testing withdrawal software.

Anyway, here are the numbers:

Huobi's predicted price: 3396 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3621 CNY
Error: 225 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 555 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 597 USD
Error: 42 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are [b]Huobi[/b]'s prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.png[/img][/url]


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[b]Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Feb/23[/b]

Today Feb/22, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China Standard Time) was 1742 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.  Therefore, I still have only one valid data point (3425 CNY at Feb/21) for the new trend line that presumably started after the Second Karpeles Catastrople of Feb/20.

I will therefore assume the same trend line used for the last prediction, namely the straight line that goes though that point and has slope minus ~29 CNY per day.  For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

[b]Prediction valid for:[/b] Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
[b]Huobi's predicted price:[/b] 3368 CNY.
[b]Bitstamp's predicted price:[/b] 550 USD.

[url=http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png][img width=600]http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-02-22-prediction-make-HUBI-annotated.png[/img][/url]

[b]NOTE[/b]: The 95% confidence interval for both predictions is [ 0, +∞ ].