# Last edited on 2014-06-27 17:23:18 by stolfilocal
# NOT POSTED YET

[quote author=elebit link=topic=178336.msg7551857#msg7551857 date=1403894599]
Even if something so insanely smart so it is to Bitcoin what Bitcoin was to whatever was before it (e-Gold?), you probably have five years of trading between Bitcoin and the new hotness before it could possibly be "dead" in any way.
[/quote]
Whay are you so sure of that?  Completely new ideas may take time to attract support; but a version of an existing idea that is technically better, without being revolutionary, can supplant it in a much shorter time.  

Some innovations can hold their ground for decades or centuries against better versions, if switching would require inordinate effort from their users.  That is the secret of the longevity of Unix, Windows, the C language (or FORTRAN!), the ".doc" format,  the 60 Hz power grid, the base 10 number system, the Latin alphabet and English spelling, and many more software constructs -- which, if the World were a rational place, should have been junked ages ago.

However, switching between cryptos would be compartively easy; for almost all users, they would only need to downoad another wallet app, sell the old currency, and buy the new one.  The Netscape browser quickly replaced Mosaic, and was in turn replaced by Mozilla/Firefox (in spite oftheir huge user base), because switching was fairly simple to ordinary users.  For the same reason, when Google cam out it quickly sent Altavista to /dev/null.  So one can expect that most small users, who would use BTC for e-commerce, will quickly switch if the new currency is moderately better in some way -- e.g., if it has faster confirmation time, better security, less volatility, etc.

[quote author=elebit link=topic=178336.msg7551857#msg7551857 date=1403894599]
And some people are going to be early adopters, trade in their Bitcoins the first few years (and any new cryptocurrency WILL be denominated in Bitcoin the first few years, that is completely and utterly irreversible) and make a fortune.
[/quote]
Why do you think that new cryptos will be denominated in BTC? Bitcoin fans like to do that, but AFAIK there are already exchanges that trade Litecoin directly for national currencies, without forcing people to go through BTC: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/  Once an exchange uprades its software to trade [i]two[/i] cryptocoins directly for dollars, it can add any other coin with little additional effort; and it will have interest in doing so if the new coin has even a small trade volume.

But that is irrelevant, the real problem is that the new coin will not automatically incorporate the current bitcoin balances into its own ledger. If and when a takeover is perceived to be imminent, those people who now own large amounts of bitcoin (and there are only a few thousands of them, too few to sustain a bitcoin economy on their own) will have to sell their bitcoins and buy the new coins.  Obviously by that time many other people will be trying t do the same, so the BTC price will crash and the new coin's price will soar, well before everybody can complete the switch.

It will not be like switching from Mosaic to Netscape at all, or even from FORTRAN to C.  It will be more like converting one's portfolio from Enron stock to Apple stock.  Or moving one's bitcoin balance from MtGOX to Bitstamp after the heist.  It is mathematically inevitable: no matter how it plays out, many people MUST lose a lot of virtual wealth in the switch.  In particular, bitcoin millionaries who are not quick enough will lose most of their fortunes.