# Last edited on 2014-06-18 12:49:39 by stolfilocal
# NOT POSTED

[quote author=damnek link=topic=178336.msg7328822#msg7328822 date=1402854917]
I think the main fear is that this auction is to test the waters for the sale of the 144k or so coins from SR
[/quote]
AFAIK, there is not much uncertainty there.

Ulbrich's personal coins [b]will[/b] be auctioned if the court decides so (which is very likely, I think, but will probably take a year or more), and the auction will happen immediately after that decision is final (in the standard government sense of "immediately").

There is uncertainty about whether the government will have access to the private keys, but I bet that they will.  (The situation would be like that of a bank robber who admits that he buried his loot but refuses to tell where; how do such cases play out, usually?)  If they can't get the keys, the FBI will publish the addresses and keep a close watch on those coins (which is easy and cheap to automate); if they move, they can charge whoever receives them, at any time, with theft of U. S. Government property, or with knowingly accepting such stolen property.  (So much for "fungibility".)

The coins will be auctioned in the same way as these 30'000, because that is the standard way;  unless this auction fails spectacularly, e.g. with less than 10 lot bids, or with highest bid at 10% market.  At most, they may split the 144'000 coins into a few separate auctions, spaced (say) a month apart, in order to attract enough bids.

The government will not care about the market price at the time, or what effect the auction will have on the bitcoin economy.

The FBI will not even think of keeping the coins, or selling them in some other way.

On the other hand, as others have pointed out, 144'000 BTC is big but not THAT big.  I would worry more about the risk of the Chinese exchanges closing,  or of some ancient big holding being dumped without warning.