# Last edited on 2014-05-29 13:42:57 by stolfilocal # NOT POSTED YET ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [quote author=romneymoney link=topic=178336.msg6997347#msg6997347 date=1401299286] [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] [quote author=Cassius link=topic=178336.msg6992164#msg6992164 date=1401283790] Look, the thing is that although you make some useful points, and you are consistently polite in doing so, you are becoming increasingly strident. The fact that you very selectively choose what to argue - and a lot of people have made some very good points against some of your mistaken assumptions recently - means that it's not really worth engaging with you. Literally no point, because you appear to ignore anything that doesn't fit with what you already believe and move on. [/quote] Obviously I argue while I believe I am right. If a reply is convincing, I let the poster have the last word. Isn't that enough? But there are MANY reasons why I am skeptical of bitcoin's success, and many of the replies that I get are not only unconvincing, thet are just countering facts with statements of faith: Me: "Goevernments can effectively ban bitcoin, see China for example." Them: "Bitcoin is like the internet, it will find a way around any obstacle." [color=red]This ship appears to be sailing in the USA on the side of no ban. This is a real concern, but trend is good IMO.[/color] Me: "Bitcoins may be scarce, but there are plenty of cyptocoins with equivalent or better protocols" Them: "Cryptocoins will die and bitcoin will not." [color=red]Bitcoin adds more users per day than the entire user-base of all the alt-coins combined. The network effect just widens the gap further. (source: [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1lqqNU3fQs]BITCOIN 2014 - Wences Casares (Xapo)[/url]. I did not verify these numbers, is this true?.[/color] Me: "Bitcoin is now more prone to theft and fraud than credit cards, see the numbers." Them: "Bitcoin will be much safer when it matures." [color=red]Bitcoin is becoming safer, check out Circle for one example of an insured BTC wallet. Multisig is a nice solution to some of the problems. The investment money pouring in now is working on that problem with much promise (not just faith).[/color] Me: "Mining is already concentrated in a few companies, they may form a cartel and become like the bankers." Them: "It is a free market so that will not happen." [color=red]Seems like a legit concern. The small amount of collusion required to attain 51% seems dangerous. This [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2thGzzNSs] Bitcoin 101 - The Nightmare of a 51% Attack[/url] goes over some other scenarios where a malicious player could break the protocol[/color] Me: "The Satoshi 2009 blockchain already assigns XX% of all the money to a few thousand people." Them: "Wealth distribution will improve with time." [color=red]While not ideal, I don't see this as any major impediment.[/color] And so on and on. Obviously I am not convinced by such answers, but how can I argue with statements of faith? [color=red]1. Agree to disagree and move on 2. Admit that you may not be infallible and that perhaps it's not "faith" but rather reasoned thinking. This is extremely hard for many on this forum to give respect to conflicting ideas. 3. Get convinced that you were in fact incorrect. You need to start with number 2. You obviously have so much ego and animosity that I am pretty sure it's affecting the accuracy of the conclusions.[/color] [/quote] [/quote] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [quote author=wachtwoord link=topic=178336.msg6947795#msg6947795 date=1401107797] Growing demand + limited supply = growing prices Extremely rapid deman growth + limited supply = extremely rapid price expansion [/quote] That is what happens in a monopoly market. But in a free market, where there is no barrier to the entry of new suppliers, Growing demand + limited supply = shrinking market share The e-payment market is "cryptocoins", not "bitcoin"; and we already had empirical proof that new suppliers can enter and thrive, in spite of the old logical agruments to the contrary. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [quote author=adamstgBit link=topic=178336.msg6896276#msg6896276 date=1400858822] [quote author=silverfuture link=topic=178336.msg6896198#msg6896198 date=1400858574] http://www.businessinsider.com/five-main-reasons-bitcoin-is-beginning-to-flourish-as-a-payment-technology-2014-5 [/quote] I have 10 reasons 1. Scarce 2. Durable 3. Portable 4. Divisible 5. Impossible to counterfeit 7. Fungible ( any 1 BTC has the same value as any other ) 8. Easy to keep safe ( contrary to popular belief, it easy to print out a paper wallet...) 9. Shiny ( yes the digital bits that make up a bitcoin are VERY shiny) 10. all of the above. + very shiny [/quote] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.businessinsider.com/five-main-reasons-bitcoin-is-beginning-to-flourish-as-a-payment-technology-2014-5 [quote] These Are The Five Main Reasons Bitcoin Is Beginning To Flourish As A Payment Technology John Heggestuen May 27, 2014, 7:15 PM 3,991 5 facebook linkedin twitter google+ print email How The Bitcoin Block Chain Works BII Bitcoin's greatest potential is as a global payments network, to power transactions that are extremely low-cost, virtually frictionless, and easily flow across national borders. In a recent report from BI Intelligence, Business Insider's paid research service, we looked into all the reasons why Bitcoin shows promise as a technology that may one day threaten other forms of payment, including cash, credit cards, and money transfers. Access the Full Report By Signing Up For A Free Trial Today >> Consider: Bitcoin is scalable: The design may place a strict limit to how many units can be created — 21 million. But each coin can be divided into 100 million pieces, which will allow it to scale as a payments technology. Bitcoin dispenses with the need for intermediaries. It allows for the simple and secure transfer of value online, without intermediaries, including the credit card networks and card-processing companies that rely on skimming transaction fees for their revenue. Specialized Bitcoin payment processors are stepping in to address price volatility. Bitcoin's transaction confirmations can take 10 minutes or even longer. Bitcoin payments processors serve as intermediaries and clear transactions in seconds, and also help merchants to avoid exchange risk. In the U.S., regulators have been largely friendly to Bitcoin. Bitcoin dramatically reduces transaction fees: Bitcoin's efficiency and low cost in comparison to legacy payments tools will ultimately prove too tempting for merchants, individuals, and business-to-business billing. Bitcoin processors charge only 1% to process bitcoin transactions, compared to the 2 to 3% often paid by merchants for credit card processing. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/five-main-reasons-bitcoin-is-beginning-to-flourish-as-a-payment-technology-2014-5#ixzz337D1e1Ch [/quote] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [quote author=lyth0s link=topic=178336.msg6861737#msg6861737 date=1400706504] [quote] The fact is that bitcoins have no value in themselves : they are only worth what people believe they are worth . [/quote] If anyone has better insight as to why or how this statement is true for bitcoin, but not for fiat. Please, please let me know. I'm awaiting enlightenment :) [/quote] Well, for one thing a national currency has government institutions that (should) try to keep its value from varying too much; so that people can negotiate rents and salaries and label grocery store items with it. Bitcoin does not: its value next week may be 45'000$ next week and 4.5$ the week after that -- there is no institution or mechanism that will try to prevent that. I have seen some bitcoin startups trying to do their accounting in bitcoins rather than dollars or euros. That is like building a house using a tapeworm instead of a measuring tape -- only MUCH worse. By the way, bitcoin is "fiat" currency too, just a private one instead of a government-issued one. It is based on the same idea as the national fiat currencies: whoever creates the currency, and keeps some of it for himself, will later be able to steal a large chunk of wealth from those who have adopted it. The main difference is that a government is supposed to use that stolen wealth for the good of their citizens, whereas bitcoiners want that wealth for themselves. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- [quote author=dreamspark link=topic=178336.msg6996982#msg6996982 date=1401297952] [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Me: "Goevernments can effectively ban bitcoin, see China for example." Them: "Bitcoin is like the internet, it will find a way around any obstacle." [/quote] Bad example, try torrents or something closer in anology to decentralization [/quote] I have been given that "like internet" reply several times, here and on twitter. China has not literally banned bitcoin, but has prevented it s use for e-commerce and finance; which has the same effect. Merchants who accept bitcoin or quote prices in bitcoin will surely be punished. People who use banks or payment processors to buy bitcoins will, at the very least, have their accounts closed. People may use it for tips and such, or for p2p payments; but any significant use (e.g. buying a car) would be too risky to be worthwhile. I do not consider success if bitcoin cannot be used for common e-payments without breaking the law. [quote author=dreamspark link=topic=178336.msg6996982#msg6996982 date=1401297952] [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Me: "Bitcoins may be scarce, but there are plenty of cyptocoins with equivalent or better protocols" Them: "Cryptocoins will die and bitcoin will not." [/quote] The very best will likely be used in some situatioins as well. But network effect, first mover effect etc. [/quote] "Network effect" and "first mover advantage" (and also "bitcoin will incorporate any technical improvements of altcoins") were the standard arguments used before 2013 to "prove" that altcoins would not arise. The facts have shown that those arguments are not very effective. (By the same reasoning, a Netscape browser license should be worth more than 10,000$ today.) [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Also if a country decides to print more money does that devalue my currency in my country? [/quote] Suppose that the supply of dollars was fixed and had no controlling authority, like bitcoin. The dollar would be worth a lot more if all countries in the world were forced to use it. It would be worth a lot less if the US allowed anyone to create a new currency, or allowed the use of foreign currencies, for general commerce inside its borders. These effects do not happen in reality because the national "market" boundaries prevent dollars from competing directly with euros, and the central banks work to keep inflation under control and preserve the national currency's monopoly. If cryptocurrencies become widely adopted, Bitcoin will be competing directly with Litecoin and/or other coins for the same market. If some other coin has technical advantages over bitcoin, it will probably prevail. Otherwise their market share will be decided by other factors, such as advertising or politics. The installed base is not a reliable advantage of Bitcoin, because mining installations will have a short life and do not depend on sophisticated know-how. [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Me: "Bitcoin is now more prone to theft and fraud than credit cards, see the numbers." Them: "Bitcoin will be much safer when it matures." [/quote] Isn't that logical due to most the thefts, scams etc being because of 0 regulation rather than the bare minimum at least. [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Me: "Mining is already concentrated in a few companies, they may form a cartel and become like the bankers." Them: "It is a free market so that will not happen." [/quote] This is agree with you more on, thats why I have my coins already, first movers advantage etc. [quote author=JorgeStolfi link=topic=178336.msg6995600#msg6995600 date=1401293945] Me: "The Satoshi 2009 blockchain already assigns XX% of all the money to a few thousand people." Them: "Wealth distribution will improve with time." [/quote] How many people do you think who mined in 2009, 2010, 2011 even 2012 still have all the coins they mined/bought now? Satoshis mined 1 million don't forget. [/quote] I don't get your point here. I was counting those early adopters too in the "few thousand people". User @rpietila has been trying to estimate the distribution of bitcoin wealth, you can find the value of XX there. If Bitcoin "went to the moon" tomorrow, the concentration of the money supply in a few hands would be much worse than the current situation with dollars. ----------------------------------------------------------------------