# Last edited on 2014-05-26 17:47:03 by stolfilocal
# NOT POSTED

[quote author=aminorex link=topic=178336.msg6773923#msg6773923 date=1400294537]
It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which burns .2 joule/gh at $0.1/kwh, and which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.
[/quote]

Protocol-defined data:

  Network block mining rate: BMR = 
    0.00185 blocks/s (1 every 9 minutes)
  
  ReWard per block: WPB = 
    25 BTC  (currently, expected to be cut down by 50% in 2017 and every 4 years thereafter).
  
Network-dependent data:

  Total network hash rate: NHR = 
    65'000'000 GH/s [Source: blockchain.info estimate.]

Location-dependent data:

  Electric energy cost: CPE = 
    0.0280 USD/MJ rural US (0.10 USD/(kW h)) [Source: @aminorex]
    0.0083 USD/MJ China and India (0.03 USD/(kW h) [Source: Tim Swanson]
    0.0047 USD/MJ Moses Lake, US (0.017 USD/(kW h)) [Source: Tim Swanson]
    0.1130 USD/MJ Denmark (0.41 USD/(kW h)) [Source: Tim Swanson]

Technology-dependent data:
  
  Cost of equipment: CEQ = 
    3700 USD/(TH/s) (BFL Monarch) [Source: specs page at BFL site]
    2000 USD/(TH/s) (modern equipment) [Source: @aminorex, ]
    1000 USD/(TH/s) (modern equipment) [Source: @oda-krell]

  Energy cost of hashing: EPH = 
    0.6 J/GH (BFL Monarch) [Source: specs page at BFL site]
    0.2 J/GH (modern equipment) [Source: @aminorex]
   
  Cost adjustment factor for cooling, maintenance and other costs: CMF =
    1.3 -- 1.5  [Source: paper]

Bitcoinomy-dependent data:

  Average transaction rate: ATR = 
    0.73 trans/s (63'000 trans/day) [Source: blockchain.info]

  Average bitcoins output rate: ABR = 
    7.12 BTC/s  (615'000 BTC/day) [Source: blockchain.info]
  
  Average transaction fees rate: AFR = 
    0.00015 BT/s (13 BTC/day) [Source: blockchain.info]
  
Derived data:

  Average bitcoins output per transaction: ABR/ATR = 9.8 BTC/trans 

  Average transactions per mined block: ATR/BMR = ~400 trans/block
  
  Average bitcoins output per mined block: ABR/BMR = ~3850 BTC/block
  
  Average fees per mined block: AFB = AFR/BMR = 0.08 BTC/block
  
  Average miners revenue per block mined: MPB = AFB + WPB = ~25 BTC (fees are currently negligible)
  
  Average miners revenue rate: AMR = AFR + WPB*BMR = ~0.046 BTC/s (~4000 BTC/day, mostly reward)
  
  Average miners revenue rate as fraction of transaction volume: AMR/ABR = 0.0065 = 0.65%
  
  Expected number of hashes needed to successfully mine a block: HPB = NHR/BMR = 35'000'000'000 GH
  
  Electric energy cost of hashes: CPH = CPE*EPH = 
    0.0056  µUSD/GH (rural US)
    0.00166 µUSD/GH (China and India)
    0.00094 µUSD/GH (Moses Lake, US)
  
  Electric energy needed to mine a block: EPB = EPH*HPB = 7'000 MJ
  
  Cost of electric energy needed to mine a block: CPB = CPE*EPB = ~200 USD
  
  Total cost to mine a block: TCPB = 1.5*CPB = ~300 USD  (excluding capital costs)
  
  BTC cost for miners: TCPB/(WPB + AFR*
  
From paper at Tim Swanson,
  
   cost is 2--3 USD/GH [source: Tim Swanson]

So, electric energy costs

  (0.0001 $/W/h)x(1/3600 h/s)
  
  x(0.2 W s/GH) = 5.6 x 10^-9 $/GH

The expected revenue it produces currently is 

  (25 BTC/block)x(1/9 block/min)x(1/60 min/s)x(13x10^-9 hits) = 0.60 x 10^-9 BTC/s

which means 9.33 $/BTC (is this right???)

The productivity  needs to be multiplied by exp(-t/a) where a = ln(1.2)/(12.8 d)/(24x3660 s/d) = 

Network hash rate as of 2014-05-16: 70 x 10^6 GH/s

Total network hashing cost: (70 x 10^6 GH/s)x(5.6 x 10^-9 $/GH) = ~0.39 $/s = 33'600 $/d

Transaction rate as of 2014-05-16: (65 x 10^3 T/day)/(24 x 3600 x s/day) = 0.75 T/s


1.3x10^-8 prob of claiming a block reward with 1 GH/s during 9 minutes.

Expected number of hashes needed to claim a block reward = (9*60 s)x(1 GH/s)/(1.3x10^-8) = 380.5 GH, 

Nwtwork hashrate: 70 x 10^6 GH/s