# Last edited on 2014-04-27 17:01:36 by stolfilocal

[quote author=Peter R link=topic=178336.msg6426616#msg6426616 date=1398625682]
No one can predict the future with certainty, but it seems to me that bitcoin's properties make it a very useful tool for a wide variety of purposes.  Here is a thought experiment: imagine that tomorrow everybody somehow "knows" that the price of bitcoin would never increase, but that the price of bitcoin would never decrease either.  It is simply a fact that 1 BTC will forever buy the same basket of goods.  Would you expect world-wide demand to hold bitcoin to increase or decrease?
[/quote]
I see aparadox there: if the commercial value is stable the demand for commerce will increase, so the price will go up, so people will hoard it, so it will not be used n commerce (Copernicus's Law), so its demand will fall, so ...

That is one of the many reasons I am skeptical about Bitcoin's chances of success: I have yet to see a consistent "business plan" -- a detailed and consistent quantitative model of how the future Bitcoin economy could work.  That model does not have to be "probable" or even "viable" (in the sense of there being a path to get us from here to there), but it has to be consistent in the sense that it will resist e.g. the competition of altcoins and alternative payment methods, and will not immediately enter runaway inflation or deflation.  And it has to be detailed enough to tell how people will get paid and taxed, how governments will function, how the distribution of wealth will be like, etc. 

The simplistic computations ("suppose it is used in X% of global internet trade") or narrow examples ("here is how you will pay groceries with bitcoin")  are not enough.   Producing such a model will not be easy of course, but it should be a priority for bitcoin enthusiasts.