# Last edited on 2014-02-15 20:37:13 by stolfilocal

[quote author=KeyserSoze link=topic=178336.msg5163850#msg5163850 date=1392489393]
To date Bitcoin has for many been one of the best investments in human history, monetarily.
[/quote]

Sigh. Bitcoin [i]was[/i] an excellent investment, [i]in hindsight[/i] - for those who bought before nov/2013 and will be smart enough to sell before it collapses.

But, [i]in hindsight[/i], buying lottery tickets was much better investment - for those who bought the winning tickets.

Bitcoin [i]has been[/i] a terrible investment for those who bought in late november, or since january. 

Bitcoin [i]is still[/i] a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease.

No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase.  Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim.

The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi.  That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price.  What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$?

I do not want to change anyone's mind here.  Adults have the right to spend their money anyway they like -- investing in risky ventures like bitcoin, poker, or lottery tickets, or even throwing it away.  And they have the right to try to convince anyone to do the same -- as long as they honestly warn him of all the risks and unknowns, without fallacius arguments or unfounded promises.  Gambling with your money is OK, scamming other people is not.