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1541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2014, 01:14:24 PM
The fees in this example are completely ridiculous. It is clear Jorge never bought Bitcoin. $5 to buy a Bitcoin? Get real.
Sigh. The values don't matter.  Can't you really see that there are MORE bank transfers when going through bitcoin? 
Only if you make a bank transfer and buy bitcoin for every single bitcoin purchase you make. Which would be insane. Most people buy their BTC in bulk, then use them as currency or hold them with the idea of being a store of value.

Thank you.  So you agree that paying with bitcoin is attractive only to people who already believe in bitcoin and own a sizable pile of bitcoin; and increased "bitcoin adoption" by merchants only gives those bitcoin holders more incentive to sell their bitcoins.

Fee usually include a % of the amount involved, so you don't save that part by doing bulk transactions.

"Hey, I see that Dell now allows payment by Mongolian Virtual Vouchers!  Cool! I think I will buy some 10'000$ worth of Mongolian Virtual Vouchers and wait for an interesting offer to come up, just to learn how they work."
1542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2014, 12:03:13 PM
Don't forget he holds > 1.000.000 BTC. It may be hard to spend his coins without revealing some details about his identity to someone. If he is exposed, he doesn't have to care any more and dump, let's say, 100.000 BTC on the market to get some cash.

It is quite possible of course that he has other coins beside those known to be "Satoshi's coins", and has been spending those.
1543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2014, 01:06:35 AM
The fees in this example are completely ridiculous. It is clear Jorge never bought Bitcoin. $5 to buy a Bitcoin? Get real.

Sigh. The values don't matter.  Can't you really see that there are MORE bank transfers when going through bitcoin? 
1544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2014, 12:00:22 AM
Perhaps an example helps.

Suppose @RPietila is now in the US (to simplify the example) and wants to buy a bottle of fine French wine that costs 500$ if paid in cash at the store -- just the current market price of 1 BTC -- with free delivery to @RPietila's location.  The wine merchant "accepts bitcoin" through Bitpay.

GOING THROUGH BITCOIN:

Years ago, when the price was 3$/BTC, all fees included, @Rpietila bought (say) 1.03 BTC for 3.09$

Today, @Rpietila clicks the bitcoin payment option and is directed to a Bitpay form that specifies the amount of bitcoin he must send, which is 1 BTC plus (say) 0.03 BTC to cover all the costs and fees.

@Rpietila transfers 1.03 BTC to the Bitpay address, shown on the form.  Let's suppose there is no fee for that.

Bitpay sends 500$ to the wine merchant's bank account. Pays a bank transfer fee for that, let's say 5$.

Bitpay sends the 1.03 BTC to Bitstamp and puts it up for sale.  Let's suppose there is no fee for that.

@JayJuanGee deposits 520$  into his Bitstamp account. Pays a bank transfer fee for that, let's say 5$.

@JayJuanGee buys the 1.03 BTC for 515$ (suppose that, by miracle, the price hasn't changed). Pays a trading fee on that, let's say another 5$.

@JayJuanGee withdraws the 1.03 BTC.  Let's suppose there is no fee for that.

@Bitpay now has 515$ in its Bitstamp account.  Withdraws 510$ to its bank account and pays a withdrawal/bank transfer fee of $5.

NET RESULT:

Bitpay paid 505$ (including one bank fee) and received 510$ (after all Bitstamp fees).  The 5$ difference is their processing fee.

@RPietila paid 3.09$ and got to enjoy a bottle of fine wine worth 500$.  He has the same amount of bitcoins that he would have if he did not buy those 1.03 BTC way then.

@JayJuanGee paid 525$ for the privilege of paying the rest of @Rpietila's wine bill (496.91$), plus three bank transfer fees, the Bitstamp trading fee, and the Bitpay processing fee; but he now has 1.03 BTC more in his hoard, nominally worth 515$, that he may be able to sell to @Erdogan tomorrow and thus pass that privilege on to him.

WITHOUT GOING THROUGH BITCOIN

@Rpietila clicks the bank payment option and gets the wine merchant's bank account #.

@RPietila sends 500$ to that account, pays a bank transfer fee of 5$.

NET RESULT:

@RPietila paid 505$ and got to enjoy a bottle of fine wine worth 500$.

CONCLUSION: Left as an exercise.
1545  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: September 08, 2014, 11:33:02 PM
Very strange to invest in this fund and then withdraw quickly considering the huge fee both when investing and when withdrawing. Just demonstrates once again that accredited investor doesn't mean shrewd investor Wink
Imagine someone who invested in Nov or Jan-Feb at >800$, expecting sizabe gains, and watched instead his investment gradually lose value while being unable to cut his losses because of the 6-month lock-in period.  Or someone who bought in May at 450$, saw it go to 650$, and then drop back to 480$ -- and could not cash the profit, for that reason.
1546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 10:09:23 PM
1. No one time. You have 50 BTC invested.
2. You take 1 BTC of your invested stack and buy whatever product you want
3. The you rebuy 1 BTC with fiat

So you only spend 1 times the fiat cost of the item you bought (although probably less due to all the benefits of Bitcoin)

Sigh. Can you please list ALL the fees that you pay when you purchase with bitcoin as you described, and the fees that you pay when paying directly with money?

(Don forger that you must send money to Coinbase/BitpayPayPal/exchange or whatever in order to buy th ebitcoins, and that Coinbase/Bitpay/Paypal has to send the money to the merchant.)

No fees when you use Circle.
Think again.  You have dollars in your bank.  To buy the item you must get a certain amount of dollars in the merchant's bank.  What are the steps (a) to pay through bitcoin and (b) to pay in dollars?

1547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 09:59:07 PM
1. No one time. You have 50 BTC invested.
2. You take 1 BTC of your invested stack and buy whatever product you want
3. The you rebuy 1 BTC with fiat

So you only spend 1 times the fiat cost of the item you bought (although probably less due to all the benefits of Bitcoin)

Sigh. Can you please list ALL the fees that you pay when you purchase with bitcoin as you described, and the fees that you pay when paying directly with money?

(Don forger that you must send money to Coinbase/BitpayPayPal/exchange or whatever in order to buy th ebitcoins, and that Coinbase/Bitpay/Paypal has to send the money to the merchant.)
1548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 08:20:49 PM
No, it's not. It increases usability and therefore also value. The flaw in the above is the implicit assumption that 1. only people that already own Bitcoins will spend them and 2. They won't replace them. Both 1 and 2 are incorrect.
Why?
1549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 06:21:07 PM
Overstock, Expedia, and Newegg are retail places that SELL the coins people spend, PayPal is person to person where people have to BUY bitcoin to send. Not all of those people will then sell coins, therefore there would be buying pressure where with the other there is selling.
It's not that hard to understand.

Actually most businesses that "accept bitcoin" accept through Coinbase/Bitpay, and they sell the bitoins.  If the Paypal announcement is legit (and is about bitcoin), isn't PayPal simply competing with Coinbase/Bitpay? 

If that is the case, Coinbase/Bitpay will be in trouble.
1550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 04:13:30 PM
Or are you sayin' you think this is a fake? a hack?

Do you have a idea about the work behind a video like this ? It's weeks and lot of $.
It's not a fake and EVERY world was chosen carefully and triple checked...

It would be some work, but not much $.
1551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 03:32:27 PM
The question for the day: is there a price so low that everyone would jump at a chance to buy, even if the price might not be an absolute bottom?  If so, what price is that?

There is no answer to that.  Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (ahem!).  The demand for use in e-payments is unknown today and more so in the future, because of competition from other payment methods (including other cryptos) and from bitcoin IOUs rather than actual bitcoins.  Apart from that, there is only demand for investment and speculation -- which is the price holding itself up by its bootstraps.
1552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 02:19:14 PM
Bulls buying behind the stupid bears their backs.  Grin Grin Grin yet they keep on coming back telling us about "final caputilation" and "dead cats"

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-brokers-trade-millions-without-exchange/

From that article:
Quote
Contrast this with Bitstamp, has accounted for up to 40% of daily traded volume at times this year.

Bitstamp 40% of volume?

My tuareg friends told me that they saw CoinDesk's credibility last year, wearing a fake beard and riding a camel through Timbuktu on her way to Samarkand.  But they are not sure it was her.

Quote
But in the markets today, there is less and less volume. Even in the equity markets, institutions are trading with each other and taking trades offline.

Good try.  Actually, a unicorn trader told me that there is less volume on the exchanges today because people are using 100$ dollar bills instead of 10$ dollar bills to buy bitcoin.  Grin
1553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 08, 2014, 01:57:07 PM
Can't do better than wiki: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

In my understanding a value of zero would mean that all the volume you see is being made from the same wallets trading by themselves, which also happens to be JorgeStolfi theory  Undecided.
In my opinion it is a glitch.

It is certainly a glitch, it has happened in other charts before.  Their chart software is rather crude (and apparently they don't read their own thread in this forum).

Interesting that the coins that are moved in the blockchain have been moved, on the average, oly 5 days earlier.
1554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2014, 11:32:13 PM
Democracy, exemplified by an assembly of monkeys:
Anarchy, exemplified by a set of free independent self-governed monkeys:

Monkey #1: Finds banana
Monkey #2: Snatches banana from Monkey #1
Monkey #1: Tries to get banana back from Monkey #2
Monkey #3: Helps Monkey #2 beat the hell out of Monkey #1
Monkey #1: Throws feces
Monkeys #2 and #3: Throw feces
Monkey #4: Sees banana lying on the gound, steals it and eats it
Monkeys #1, #2, and #3: Run in circles looking for banana

Natural justice outcome: Random monkey eats banana, other monkeys don't
1555  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 07, 2014, 09:47:55 PM
Market cap is a meaningful concept for items whose market liquidity is close to the total issuance.  If all owners of Apple stock (or even gold) were somehow forced to sell all their holdings on market within one year, their total revenue would be fairly close to the market cap.   That is not true for cryptocurrencies, not even for bitcoin.

I don't think that's right. Market liquidity doesn't need to be close to issuance, if people are choosing to hold for reasons other than lack of liquidity. Liquidity really only needs to be adequate for each holder or any group of holders operating as a group.

But for those scenarios the relevant quantity is market price,  not market cap.  Or, rather, (size of largest lot considered)*(mean price for sale or purchase of that lot).

The market cap is (market price)*(total issuance); why would total issuance matter, if only a small fraction of it can be traded at that price?
1556  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 07, 2014, 09:34:48 PM
Did the lost Dutchman get lost  he has been missing a while don't you know?
I haven't heard if he found Lost or not.  What did he do to piss off the Lost Dutchman?
Why do you care about him?
Does anyone else feel that many users who were very active six months ago have gone missing since then?
Did you know that accounts can be sold?
Why would someone buy an account then not use it?
Maybe he wants to resell it?
Or maybe he wants to scoop out its insides and sew shut its openings and smoke it out and stuff it with straw and hang it over the door of his hut to ward off evil spirits?
Did you purposely forget to include ", you think" at the end of your question?
Would that be sufficient, or should I have started the question with "Is it possible that" instead of "Or maybe"?
1557  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 07, 2014, 09:26:59 PM
Let's say that the market cap of a coin is the measure of the trust that people collectively have towards the coin. If coin X costs $1, and people A, B, C, and D own it 4, 3, 2, and 1 units respectively, the market cap equals $10. This much money the people are willing to trust to be held in this coin.

Is the market cap a variable worth considering?

Person Z,  creator of the X coin, mined 1 trillion coins in the first hour after creating the currency.  After giving out those 10 coins to A, B, C, and D for free, he sold one coin to himself for 1$.  Presto, the market cap is 1 trillion $, and his friends's hoards are worth 10$...

Market cap is a meaningful concept for items whose market liquidity is close to the total issuance.  If all owners of Apple stock (or even gold) were somehow forced to sell all their holdings on market within one year, their total revenue would be fairly close to the market cap.   That is not true for cryptocurrencies, not even for bitcoin.

Perhaps you meant to say that A, B, C, and D bought their coins at 1$?  In that case one should exclude from the "market cap" any large hoards acquired well below market price? Or replace market cap by total invested capital (sum of the dollar amounts that current owners paid for their coins, plus interest perhaps)?

EDIT: I take back the "even gold".  I have no idea of what woudl happen to gold price in that scenario.
1558  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: September 07, 2014, 08:09:34 PM
Please strip the URL tag from the dust spammer: https://blockchain.info/address/1LaxoTrQy51LnB289VmoSAgN6J6UrJbfL9 and take any further punitive measures against their abuse as you see fit.

Is that a forex Ponzi?
https://laxotrade.com/
1559  Other / Off-topic / Re: Answer the question above with a question. on: September 07, 2014, 07:58:47 PM
Did the lost Dutchman get lost  he has been missing a while don't you know?
I haven't heard if he found Lost or not.  What did he do to piss off the Lost Dutchman?
Why do you care about him?
Does anyone else feel that many users who were very active six months ago have gone missing since then?
Did you know that accounts can be sold?
Why would someone buy an account then not use it?
Maybe he wants to resell it?
Or maybe he wants to scoop out its insides and sew shut its openings and smoke it out and stuff it with straw and hang it over the door of his hut to ward off evil spirits?
1560  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 07, 2014, 03:34:18 PM
1) Large professional miners (LPMs) are able to get HW at a large discount compared to private end users (large as >50%) so they are able to pay back the HW very fast (less than a month).

One way to get harware at a 100% discount:

* Advertise high-performance, low-consumption mining rig to be built and delivered in 2-3 months.
* Collect thousands of pre-orders at >5000 USD unit price.
* Build or buy those machines in record time.
* Move those machines to a massive "testing facility"
* "Test" the machines for months, and keep all the bitcoins that they mine.
* When the machines become uneconomical, ship them to the customers.

One can repeat this with several generations of mining equipment.

This method has been tested, and works!
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